Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 236.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 235.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 236.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The Buccaneers rank as the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 67.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Baker Mayfield has attempted a measly 11.2 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 6th percentile among QBs.
Baker Mayfield has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 63.0 yards per game while ranking in the 6th percentile.
Baker Mayfield has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 5.89 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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