Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Passing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 190.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 205.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 190.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to utilize backup QB Baker Mayfield this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest clip in the league versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (74.5%).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.39 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 31.7 passes this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.

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