Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Passing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 219.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 211.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Baker Mayfield has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with a 61.9% Completion%, grading out in the 23rd percentile.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 10th-least yards in the NFL (just 219.0 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has shown good efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.20 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the NFL.