Baker Mayfield Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pass Attempts

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
This week, Baker Mayfield is forecasted by the predictive model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 34.0.

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