Baker Mayfield Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Pass Attempts

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 3:36 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 169.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

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