Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers as the 9th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 132.5 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
In this week's contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 5th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.9.
Baker Mayfield's 70.7% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a material growth in his passing accuracy over last year's 63.6% figure.
This year, the shaky Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded a massive 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 8th-best in football.

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