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Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-120).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.Baker Mayfield's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 63.6% to 71.4%.This year, the anemic Panthers defense has conceded a whopping 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Carolina's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 6.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run just 63.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
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