Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 17, 2023

Updated Dec 31, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 132.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in football against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (63.0% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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