Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
This week, Baker Mayfield is forecasted by the predictive model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 34.0.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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