Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Completions

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-119/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield's throwing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.9% to 52.8%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (65.9%).

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