Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Completions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to utilize backup QB Baker Mayfield this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest clip in the league versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (74.5%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 31.7 passes this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.

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