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Baker Mayfield
NFL · Player Props
Baker Mayfield
QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023 Updated Oct 13, 2023 5:41 PM UTC
NFL Props Baker Mayfield Carries

Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +125.

Favors Over
  • The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buccaneers to run on 43.7% of their plays: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
  • The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to total 4.3 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Favors Under
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
  • When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 5th-worst in football last year.
  • The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
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