Baker Mayfield Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buccaneers to run on 43.7% of their plays: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to total 4.3 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 5th-worst in football last year.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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