Bailey Zappe TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Bailey Zappe

NFL · Player Props

Bailey Zappe

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 1:26 AM EST

Analysis

Bailey Zappe TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Bailey Zappe to throw 31.0 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Bailey Zappe's 52.3% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a remarkable regression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 70.0% figure.
The passing TD line reads "0" on the back of Bailey Zappe's trading card this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in football vs. the Steelers defense this year (65.9% Adjusted Completion%).

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