Bailey Zappe Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Bailey Zappe

NFL · Player Props

Bailey Zappe

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Bailey Zappe Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+106/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots rank as the 6th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.7% run rate.
At only 26.68 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.
The leading projections forecast Bailey Zappe to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (12.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.4% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 26th-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
This week, Bailey Zappe is forecasted by the projections to accrue the 11th-fewest rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 3.3.
Bailey Zappe has picked up a measly 4.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest marks in football among QBs (14th percentile).
Bailey Zappe's running effectiveness (3.49 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (22nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).

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