Bailey Zappe Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Bailey Zappe

NFL · Player Props

Bailey Zappe

QB · New England Patriots

Passing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Bailey Zappe Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 202.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 202.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 202.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.68 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in football.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the NFL against the Cleveland Browns defense this year (67.4%).

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