Bailey Zappe Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Bailey Zappe

NFL · Player Props

Bailey Zappe

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:31 PM EST

Analysis

Bailey Zappe Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
At only 26.68 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's group of safeties has been very bad this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.3% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Bailey Zappe's throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 57.6%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Chiefs defense this year (67.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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