Austin Hooper Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Austin Hooper

NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 28, 2024 2:26 AM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
Austin Hooper's 11.0% Target Share this year marks a significant improvement in his passing game workload over last year's 5.3% figure.

Favors Under

The model projects the Patriots as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.7 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year.

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