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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Hooper Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

Austin Hooper's 25.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 9.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football has been the New England Patriots.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Austin Hooper's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 81.0% to 75.0%.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Los Angeles's unit has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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