Austin Hooper Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Austin Hooper

NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 20, 2024 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-117/-117).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are huge underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.
With an outstanding 6.48 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Austin Hooper rates as one of the top pass-catching TEs in the league in the open field.
The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.54 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-most in football.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-focused offense in the league (55.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.
The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in football.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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