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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

This week, Austin Hooper is expected by the predictive model to land in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 3.8 targets.

After accumulating 7.0 air yards per game last season, Austin Hooper has seen marked improvement this season, currently sitting at 24.0 per game.

Austin Hooper's 25.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 9.9.

Austin Hooper's 28.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies a remarkable growth in his receiving prowess over last season's 15.0 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 10th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Austin Hooper's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 81.0% to 75.0%.

This year, the strong Chargers defense has surrendered a paltry 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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