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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Patriots are enormous underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.

The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically lead to increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect Austin Hooper to accumulate 3.8 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The New England offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Austin Hooper's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 81.0% to 74.5%.

This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills defense has given up a measly 71.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 6th-best rate in football.

The Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency against TEs this year, conceding 6.51 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.

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