Austin Hooper Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Austin Hooper

NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 9, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Patriots, who are enormous -9-point underdogs.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
With an exceptional 81.0% Adjusted Completion% (83rd percentile) last year, Austin Hooper ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends.
Last year, the poor Bengals defense has yielded a colossal 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-most in football.
The Bengals pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (82.4%) to tight ends last year (82.4%).

Favors Under

At the present time, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Patriots.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.7 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots last year (just 56.2 per game on average).
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league last year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

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