Austin Hooper Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
Austin Hooper's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 75.6% to 85.7%.

Favors Under

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).
Austin Hooper has been a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack this season (4.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (13.5%).
Austin Hooper has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
Austin Hooper has posted substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (68.4%).