Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is projected by the projections to slot into the 77th percentile among RBs with 13.1 carries.
Out of all RBs, Austin Ekeler grades out in the 87th percentile for carries this year, comprising 55.5% of the workload in his team's run game.
Austin Ekeler has averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (75th percentile).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
The Los Angeles offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football last year at opening holes for runners.
Austin Ekeler's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 3.54 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.87 rate last year.