Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Austin Ekeler to garner 13.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Out of all RBs, Austin Ekeler ranks in the 86th percentile for carries this year, comprising 54.7% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.
Austin Ekeler has generated 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (84th percentile).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 36.3% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL last year.
Austin Ekeler's running effectiveness has worsened this year, notching a measly 4.05 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 mark last year.