Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
Among all RBs, Austin Ekeler ranks in the 87th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 53.8% of the workload in his team's running game.
Austin Ekeler has grinded out 54.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (81st percentile).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.8% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Chargers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football last year at blocking for rushers.
Austin Ekeler's running effectiveness has declined this year, totaling a mere 3.70 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 figure last year.
Austin Ekeler checks in as one of the weakest RBs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.

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