Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to garner 13.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler has received 57.9% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler has picked up 54.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (75th percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
Austin Ekeler has been among the bottom RBs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.75 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 25th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.