Austin Ekeler Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Austin Ekeler has rushed for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (91st percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-most touchdowns in the league (1.25 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the worst DT corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-least run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 37.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game near the goal line this week (50.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (63.6% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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