Austin Ekeler Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+165/-225).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
Austin Ekeler has received 63.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler has run for 0.67 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in football among RBs (94th percentile).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends project as the 5th-worst DE corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a giant 8.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 34.6% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-least TDs in the NFL (0.56 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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