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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are projected by the model to run 68.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).

In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is expected by the model to find himself in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.9 targets.

Austin Ekeler has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 13.1% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.

With a fantastic 3.1 adjusted catches per game (91st percentile) this year, Austin Ekeler ranks among the leading running backs in the pass game in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.

The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.

This year, the strong Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded a meager 82.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 10th-best rate in the league.

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