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Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-143).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may decline.This week, Austin Ekeler is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets.Austin Ekeler has been an integral part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.0% this year, which places him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With respect to a defense's effect on pace, at 29.13 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 5th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.Austin Ekeler's play as a receiver has declined this season, accumulating a measly 2.6 adjusted catches compared to 3.6 last season.This year, the imposing Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed a paltry 79.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the league.
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