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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Easton Stick.

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

The Chargers have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 64.5% pass rate.

The model projects Austin Ekeler to garner 5.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.

The Broncos linebackers profile as the worst LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Chargers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Austin Ekeler's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 27.0.

Austin Ekeler's 3.5 adjusted catches per game this year illustrates a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 6.3 mark.

Austin Ekeler's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 86.6% to 70.9%.

More Austin Ekeler Player Props

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