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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-174/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -174.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The predictive model expects Austin Ekeler to notch 5.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

This year, the porous Patriots pass defense has allowed a massive 90.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the highest rate in the league.

When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New England's unit has been lousy this year, projecting as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.

With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Austin Ekeler has been incorporated much less in his team's passing offense.

Austin Ekeler's play as a receiver has declined this year, notching just 3.5 adjusted receptions vs 6.3 last year.

Austin Ekeler's 70.8% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteable regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.6% mark.

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