Austin Ekeler Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
In this game, Austin Ekeler is predicted by the model to finish in the 100th percentile among RBs with 6.8 targets.
With an impressive 16.1% Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Austin Ekeler stands among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Green Bay's DT corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Austin Ekeler's pass-catching performance diminished this season, averaging just 3.6 adjusted receptions compared to 6.3 last season.
Austin Ekeler's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 86.6% to 69.2%.

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