Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
The model projects Austin Ekeler to notch 5.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Austin Ekeler's receiving efficiency has improved this season, totaling 7.07 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 5.91 figure last season.
Austin Ekeler's 13.13 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows an impressive boost in his efficiency in space over last year's 8.0% mark.

Favors Under

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year.
When talking about air yards, Austin Ekeler ranks in the measly 7th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -5.0 per game.