Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Austin Ekeler to notch 5.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this year, totaling 7.38 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 5.91 mark last year.
Austin Ekeler's talent in generating extra yardage have improved this year, notching 13.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 8.03 mark last year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
Austin Ekeler has posted a feeble -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 10th percentile among RBs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Austin Ekeler has been incorporated much less in his team's passing offense.
Austin Ekeler's 37.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a noteable reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 43.0 rate.