Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
In this game, Austin Ekeler is predicted by the model to finish in the 100th percentile among RBs with 6.8 targets.
With an impressive 16.1% Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Austin Ekeler stands among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
Austin Ekeler has been one of the top pass-game RBs this year, averaging a stellar 41.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Austin Ekeler has notched a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 6th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Austin Ekeler's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 86.6% to 69.2%.

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