Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this game, Austin Ekeler is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.8 targets.
Austin Ekeler has been a key part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 15.6% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Austin Ekeler has accumulated a mere -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 20th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Austin Ekeler's 74.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a substantial reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 86.6% mark.
This year, the tough Lions defense has given up a measly 69.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.

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