Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (+117/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to notch 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Austin Ekeler has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (-10.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).
Austin Ekeler's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 6.21 yards-per-target vs a 7.42 figure last year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.16 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.