Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to total 6.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 15.2% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler has accumulated a whopping 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Austin Ekeler has been among the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 42.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (76.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (76.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 10.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.