Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (+102/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to earn 9.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler has been a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this season (20.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (14.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Austin Ekeler has accrued far fewer air yards this season (-10.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).
Austin Ekeler's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, compiling a mere 5.91 yards-per-target vs a 7.42 figure last season.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 27.0) versus running backs this year.

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