Austin Ekeler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+296/-521).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -476 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -521.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Austin Ekeler has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.4% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler has accumulated a whopping 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Austin Ekeler's 24.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 98th percentile for running backs.
Austin Ekeler's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 78.4% to 92.9%.
Austin Ekeler ranks in the 100th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.44 per game.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (76.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (76.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded the least passing touchdowns in football to RBs: 0.05 per game since the start of last season.