Austin Ekeler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+262/-434).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -411 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -434.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Austin Ekeler has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which puts him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Austin Ekeler has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (-6.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

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