Austin Ekeler Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
In this game, Austin Ekeler is predicted by the predictive model to rank in the 82nd percentile among running backs with 13.9 carries.
Out of all running backs, Austin Ekeler grades out in the 83rd percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 50.0% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (35.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Chargers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.

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