Austin Ekeler Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-114/-126).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to accumulate 12.9 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

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