Austin Ekeler Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-122/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to garner 13.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler has received 57.9% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.