A.T. Perry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.T. Perry

NFL · Player Props

A.T. Perry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

A.T. Perry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
While A.T. Perry has been responsible for 4.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in New Orleans's passing offense this week at 11.0%.

Favors Under

The Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Falcons defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 129.0) to WRs this year.
This year, the formidable Falcons defense has conceded a meager 61.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.

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