Ashton Dulin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Ashton Dulin

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Ashton Dulin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+291/-508).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +303 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +291.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ashton Dulin to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (15.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.9% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (74.8%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (74.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has given up the 3rd-most passing touchdowns in football to WRs: 1.17 per game since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
Ashton Dulin's 14.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the worst in football: 25th percentile for WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.