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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 4th-most run-oriented team in the league (44.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

Antonio Gibson's running effectiveness (4.46 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (77th percentile among running backs).

Antonio Gibson grades out as one of the top RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 3.87 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

The New York Jets defensive ends project as the 3rd-worst DE corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are huge underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.

The New York Jets defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up just 4.21 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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