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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 41.6% rate of running the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-most run-focused team in football has been the New England Patriots.

Antonio Gibson has been a less important option in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 28.3% of snaps compared to 46.0% last season.

Antonio Gibson's 28.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows an impressive growth in his running ability over last year's 16.0 figure.

With an excellent tally of 3.98 yards after contact (95th percentile), Antonio Gibson ranks among the most efficient running backs in the league this year.

This year, the stout Chargers run defense has allowed a mere 4.75 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 24th-best rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

The Los Angeles Chargers safeties project as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league this year with their run defense.

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